As I did yesterday with home team leading, I did the same analysis for home team trailing or away team leading.
First we'll look at the one-goal differential, home team being down.
By taking a quick look, one sees that 1-2 gives the home team the highest chance of coming back. When the score is 2-3, the probability of coming back is smaller. As someone pointed out in a comment, this can be due to ability of adversary teams to score. It means that in a high scoring game, you have less chance to win, because either your defence is bad or your opponent's offence is strong.
Strangely, 0-1 is not the best score you can hope to see so your team maximisizes its winning chances. But the difference is relatively small with the 1-2 score.
Now ce can take a look at a two-goal deficit for home team.
As previously observed, 1-3 is better than 0-2 in terms of winning opportunity. My guess is that scoring a goal gives the home team a moral boost, whereas at 0-2 the players just wait for the game to end. Here the difference between the two scores is even greater than before until the 70th minute. Thois is the minute where many substitutions take place, so the "manager effect" equates the "moral boost effect"which is decreasing over time.
Allright, I think there are some things to learn from these short analysis :
- Avoid high scoring game to maintain high chances of winning when team is leading.
- When trailing, it is better to score at least one goal, to give moral boost and increase winning chance.
- When leading, the winning chance increases over time. When trailing, the winning chance decreases.
- The 70th minute seems to be critical when a team leads or is down 2 goals. At this point winning chances are converging to the same value no matter what the score is.
In terms of average Win% :
- Reducing the gap from a 2-goals deficit to a 1-goal deficit increases Win% by 15.1%.
- Tying the game increases Win% by 27.5%.
- Taking the lead in a game increases Win% by 32.6%
- Increasing the lead to a 2-goals lead increases Win% by 11.4%.
First we'll look at the one-goal differential, home team being down.
By taking a quick look, one sees that 1-2 gives the home team the highest chance of coming back. When the score is 2-3, the probability of coming back is smaller. As someone pointed out in a comment, this can be due to ability of adversary teams to score. It means that in a high scoring game, you have less chance to win, because either your defence is bad or your opponent's offence is strong.
Strangely, 0-1 is not the best score you can hope to see so your team maximisizes its winning chances. But the difference is relatively small with the 1-2 score.
Now ce can take a look at a two-goal deficit for home team.
As previously observed, 1-3 is better than 0-2 in terms of winning opportunity. My guess is that scoring a goal gives the home team a moral boost, whereas at 0-2 the players just wait for the game to end. Here the difference between the two scores is even greater than before until the 70th minute. Thois is the minute where many substitutions take place, so the "manager effect" equates the "moral boost effect"which is decreasing over time.
Allright, I think there are some things to learn from these short analysis :
- Avoid high scoring game to maintain high chances of winning when team is leading.
- When trailing, it is better to score at least one goal, to give moral boost and increase winning chance.
- When leading, the winning chance increases over time. When trailing, the winning chance decreases.
- The 70th minute seems to be critical when a team leads or is down 2 goals. At this point winning chances are converging to the same value no matter what the score is.
In terms of average Win% :
- Reducing the gap from a 2-goals deficit to a 1-goal deficit increases Win% by 15.1%.
- Tying the game increases Win% by 27.5%.
- Taking the lead in a game increases Win% by 32.6%
- Increasing the lead to a 2-goals lead increases Win% by 11.4%.
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