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Win Probability Over Time (Continued)


Allright, I will continue to show and explain what I found while toying with the data.

A)  Trailing by 2

 
So now, we’ll continue our journey. 

 
The graph is really interesting. Despite no strong correlation, we can see that there are two sorts of sub-graphs. After the thirtieth minute, winning chances drop significantly from 21,05% to 7,69%. Then we see that the data are close. We have a R² of 0.71 for [35-90] minutes. The first 30 minutes are more interesting. Even if the number of events is low, because it’s not usual to concede 2 goals quickly in the game we can still draw some conclusions from this.
We have an odd phenomenon around the twentieth minute, with winning chances increasing then dropping.  As previously observed, the winning chance increases after the twentieth minute so the manager effect hypothesis is starting to seem likely.


B)  Trailing by 3


Not much to say here, as there is so few teams that came back from such a scenario. 

 
It’s hard to develop a model for this situation without overstating winning chances.


C)   Trailing by 4


Same story as before, not much to analyze.

 
There are no data for earlier than the thirtieth minute, because teams are not bad and don’t let opponents score too easily. Of the ten times a team was trailing by 4, only one achieved to tie the game.  


D)  Trailing by 5 and 6


No need to put the graphs here, as the Win% is 0% whatever how much is left. One could say that a 4 goal lead when away is 100% sure to yield the three points.

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